Cálculo de un índice de pérdidas por catástrofes desencadenante de los Insurance-linked securities, ILS. Revisión de los modelos precedentes y propuesta de un modelo continuo alternativo
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This article proposes a continuous model to determine the loss-index-trigger of Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). To this aim, we consider that the total amount of the thus covered catastrophe results from the sum of two random variables, the reported claims amount and the reported-but-not-yet-reported claims amount. The central hypothesis
of our model assumes a temporary decrease of the latter, proportional to an exponential function that we call asymptotic reporting claims rate. We represent the dynamics of this decrease through a geometric Brownian motion, wheras the reported claims amount, numerator of the loss ratio intended to be determined, is obtained by the difference between the incurred-but-not-yet-reported claims amount and the catastrophe’s total amount.
insurance-linked securities, incurred-but-not-yet-reported loss amount, reported loss amount, asymptotic claim reporting rate, catastrophic loss index, geometric Brownian motionnsurance-linked securities, cuantía de siniestros pendiente de declarar, cuantía declarada de siniestros, tasa de declaración de siniestros asintótica, índice de pérdidas por catástrofes, movimiento Browniano geométrico